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Most casual bettors don’t make a profit from their
sportsbetting hobby. This includes bettors who are relatively sharp as well
as those who couldn’t pick a winner if their lives depended on it. That’s
not a horrible thing either if every bettor won, sportsbooks would be going
belly up far more often than they do, and bettors would run out of places to
play. And many bettors really don’t care very much about earning a long term
profit. They like to have some action on games as a form of recreation or
excitement, not as an investment decision. Many of these type of bettors are
far more interested in TV games than anything else, and they tend to bet
more on bigger games, like the Super Bowl or NCAA Tournament.
Much of the industry jargon considers money management as important as
picking winners, if not more so. And it certainly is. But throwing around
buzzwords like money management and describing esoteric concepts like
isolate a percentage of bankroll and positive expectation bets really
doesn’t help the fortunes of most recreational bettors. If you, personally,
are content with betting for entertainment purposes only than this essay
will serve little purpose. But if you wish to be a successful sports bettor,
even as an amateur, and earn a profit from your betting over an extended
period of time, here are some tips that should help you in that quest.
Don’t bet into bad numbers:
Professional handicappers recognize the value of the half point. On the
average college basketball Saturday, for example, there are at least dozen
games that are won or lost against the spread by a point or less. If he bet
on the game, the pro bettor will be on the right side of just about every
one of those decisions. He’ll either getting the push when others lost, or
he’ll get the win when others pushed. (I use he because, to be honest, every
professional sports bettor that I know is a man - this is a very segregated
industry in that regard). The pro will take the extra time to shop around
for the best number at multiple sportsbooks. He’ll have accounts that are
funded in enough places to ensure that when he finds the line that he is
looking for, he’ll be able to place the bet. And he’ll have an idea of which
direction the line is likely to move, enabling him to bet early or late,
depending on which time offers an advantageous number. The pro wins by a
half point far more often than he loses by the hook. Making a modest 20 bets
a week (1000 a year, a number that is on the low side for most
professionals), it is not unusual to gain an extra 10 or 15 wins a year and
another 10 or 15 pushes just by betting into good numbers.
Make more straight bets and fewer parlays:
Professional bettors make the vast majority of their bets as straight bets,
not as parlays. For amateurs, the number is closer to 50:50, and there are
many, many amateurs who rarely straight bet at all. But the straight bet is
the pro’s bread and butter. Professionals are satisfied with the return on
investment from a 3-2 day, or a 12-8 week. They are in it for the long haul,
not always looking for the quick score that parlays provide. Amateurs are
often lured by the big paydays that winning parlays provide, conveniently
forgetting that a season largely consisting of steady 2-1 type days will be
even more profitable than the big hits that parlays provide even in a good
overall season. Straight bettors never curse the 4-1 days – when they pick
more winners than losers – because they make a profit every time, while
parlay bettors don’t. There’s a reason that every sportsbook in Las Vegas
has their parlay cards prominently displayed – frankly, parlays pay the
bills at most joints here in town.
Concentrate more on box scores and less on final scores:
It’s easy to look at the final score of a game and make all kinds of false
assumptions. This team got killed, that team gave em all they could handle.
But without reading game recaps and looking at box scores, you really have
no idea of what took place, and what kind of current form the teams you are
examining are in. It’s key to handicap games again, after the games are
over. What happened that you expected to happen, and what was a surprise?
Which things are likely to repeat themselves, and which are something of an
anomaly? Here’s an example. The Pistons play the Bulls at home, as nine
point favorites, but win by only seven, 97-90. But looking at the box score,
it’s clear that Detroit dominated for most of the game. The Pistons won the
rebounding battle and forced the Bulls into turnovers. They led by double
digits at halftime and after three quarters. Bu the Bulls hit some late
shots in garbage time and made the final score closer than the game was. On
that same night, the Raptors are nine point favorites to the Nuggets, and
win by that same 97-90 margin. But the box score here indicates a whole
different story. The Raptors trailed throughout this game, but got hot in
the 4th quarter to steal the win. Toronto made an uncharacteristic 27-30
from the free throw line, and hit ten three pointers, while Denver shot just
4-19 in the 4th quarter.
Take advantage of value:
Linesmakers have a pretty good idea of which way the money is going to flow
once they hang their opening numbers. And amateur bettors are a big part of
this, falling in love with public teams, betting them over and over again.
In college sports, these public teams are usually in the Top 25, from a
major conference – well known schools. In the pro sports, they are the
hottest teams, teams at the top of their respective divisions or
conferences. The professional bettor will recognize this public bias, notice
that the lines are inflated for many of the best teams in the country, and
either bet against many of the good teams or pass on their games entirely.
Instead, the pro’s concentrate much more on backing the good but not great
type of squads, teams that have fallen underneath the public’s collective
radar, as well as fading some of the mediocre type squads that are in poor
current form. The pros bet against Top 25 clubs far more often than they
back ‘em – that’s where the value is, catching six points with an underdog
that should only be getting four.
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